Tag Archives: AUD

Did RBA shoot own foot?

There was always a risk that the RBA would feel pressured into a cut on Tuesday by intolerable strength in the currency it issues.

So it was, it seems. Although sadly for the RBA, its decision to cut interest rates to take steam out of the AUD rally resulted in an AUD rally.

It has been widely asserted that the offending action was the lack of an explicit easing bias in the accompanying statement. For instance, from the SMH:

Failing to control the Aussie’s rise with its rate cut, the RBA “has lost all respectability – if there was any left to lose”

Cripes.

While I have to say I was surprised at this misstep by the RBA (which among other things contributed to a continuation in the brutal bank sell-off, which I lazily supposed would be halted by a cut), it’s probably reaching a bit far to heap opprobrium on the RBA in this instance. There’s been a vicious bond sell-off lately and yield plays (i.e. our financials-stacked sharemarket), have naturally been getting smacked around.

The market was also clearly looking for an excuse to buy AUDUSD. As I’ve detailed previously, most indicators have pointed to a mild improvement in Australia over the last couple of months, so much so that I found myself in the camp thinking a May cut might well have been off the table. In the end, the RBA met me half way, and markets moved on a tightening theme (or at least a no-more-easing theme, which is a sufficiently terrifying prospect for modern markets).

It will be a fairly short-lived, I feel. Iron ore has had a nice rebound from very oversold levels it reached in late March/early April. Chinese steel mills are replenishing inventories and there are signs of a thawing at the top tier of the property market. It’s not likely to last. As a reminder, here is the ongoing supply deluge:

IronOre2

All being dumped on contracting steel production.

I can’t say how long the restock will persist, but the next time iron ore slumps it’s very likely to print fresh lows, pushing another few juniors towards the abyss, before eventually coming for FMG.

Capture16

An interesting development that’s worth keeping an eye on is the large spike in futures volumes traded on the Dalian Exchange. From Reuters:

The volume of iron ore futures traded on the Dalian bourse reached 18.6 million contracts in April, equivalent to 1.86 billion tonnes, according to data on the exchange’s website. That was a monthly record, and far surpassed annual global sea-borne trade of around 1.4 billion tonnes.

An increase in volumes isn’t necessarily an issue, except that in this case market participants are obviously prone to leaping from one side of the boat to the other, and so we’re probably going to see more episodes of dizzying volatility this year.

The RBA is not done cutting interest rates yet.

Straya T’day 18/9/2014

Aussie wilts along with the rest

A fortnight ago, I wrote:

As long as it’s relatively lucrative to borrow offshore and hold short-term AUD-denomiated assets, we aren’t likely to see a sustained fall in our currency.

This was quite unfortunate timing for me, given that I have been among the biggest AUD bears going around for the past 3 years. I hadn’t abandoned this conviction at the time of that post, but rather I was anticipating the Fed remaining relatively dovish; enough so that it wouldn’t send the AUD sharply lower until the RBA finally signalled the return of an easing bias. Whatever it was that fixed the market’s attention on the USD (those working papers from the Fed undoubtedly played a part), the timing of the AUD fall was plainly brought dramatically forward as the USD regained it’s mojo over the last fortnight.

I discussed the capitulation of the AUDUSD last week. Here’s how it looks today.

AUD18
Chart from IG Markets

The mood in Australia is turning noticeably negative now. The local bourse has copped a hiding  this month, down around 4% despite resilience in US equities.

ASX

The selling has been broad-based across sectors, however financials (XFJ), consumer discretionary (XDJ) and energy (XEJ) have led the charge, with materials (XMJ) continuing to languish due to the rout in iron ore. It’s worth remembering that financials and materials together account for half the local share market.

Screen Shot 2014-09-18 at 2.13.32 pm
Chart courtesy of Yahoo Finance

Weighing on sentiment towards Australia has been a poor run of data from China, beginning on the weekend. There have been short-lived bursts of excitement about government stimulus measures, but anyone hoping for a concentrated campaign to rescues fixed asset investment (and in so doing, rescue Australia), looks destined for disappointment. Rebar futures are again on the nose today.

Data on Chinese property were released today, and the downturn is carrying on with scant regard for the apparent imminency of stimulus.

1_china-300x0

It’s getting quite nasty now, and I expect property will begin testing the government’s reform fortitude in earnest in the coming months. As the Premier recently noted, it’s employment growth that is chief first among the government’s policy objectives. As long as employment is holding up, the government will tolerate deflating property. But what happens if employment starts to seriously suffer as a result of weakening property?

Australian asset allocation

As I said, despite an unfortunately-timed assertion that the AUD would be unlikely to decline materially (that is, break support at .9200), I have been and remain a long-term AUD bear. As such, I continue to favour stocks with a sizeable portion of earnings being generated offshore, or those with solid growth prospects for offshore earnings. This excludes the miners, however, since my bearish medium term view of their main product is central to my expectations for a lower AUD.

Candidates include Seek.com (SEK), CSL (CSL), Cochlear (COH), Westfield (WDC), Computershare (CPU), ResMed (RMD).

I’ve also liked Billabong (BBG) and Elders (ELD) and speculative plays for a while. Both have been crucified and are in the throes of restructuring. ELD is moving back towards a pure-play agribusiness model after various diversification disasters over the years. I believe there is long-term value in the strategy; if it can pull off the turnaround in its corporate model it will be well poised to take advantage of a lower dollar boosting Australia’s agricultural export sectors.

All advice is general in nature and does not take into account an individual’s circumstances. Proceed with caution.